Analysis Reveals IAH Airport's Hidden Recovery Gap Despite Record-Breaking 2024

The latest data on airline passenger counts at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) reveal a nuanced recovery story.

For 2024, total passenger counts (domestic + international) were up 5% from the previous year, and notably, in June 2024, the total was the highest in more than 20 years! Despite these seemingly impressive results, activity is still below “expectations”.

1. U.S. Department of Transportation, 2. Best-fit ARIMA model

The pre-COVID trend model projects where passenger counts would be if pre-pandemic growth patterns had persisted. While narrowing, the gap between actual counts and this projected trendline indicates that IAH is still in recovery despite the record numbers.

This finding highlights an important consideration when evaluating post-COVID economic recovery: Simply returning to or exceeding 2019 levels may create an incomplete picture. The more meaningful question is whether the activity has returned to its expected long-term trajectory.

For IAH, the consistent narrowing of this gap suggests promising momentum. New records could surpass the pre-pandemic trendline within the next two years, signaling a true and complete recovery for one of Texas's busiest transportation hubs.