“Texas WARNing signs ahead"

Texas WARN layoffs are down 11% for January through April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Preliminary data for May 2025 indicate that the rate is likely to be significantly lower than last year’s peak for the same month.

While 2025 seems to be off to a good start with fewer layoffs, there are warning signs that that could reset expectations for the remainder of the year. Surveys of Texas consumers and businesses indicate a negative shift in sentiment over the past couple of months. The potential impact of tariffs and renewed inflationary pressures are causing firms to pause some capital spending and purchasing decisions. If economic conditions turn from uncertainty to contraction, layoffs could accelerate.

Note: The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act requires employers with 100 or more employees to provide 60 calendar-day advance notification of planned closings and mass layoffs of employees.