Hey Texans, AI can’t fix your sink

988,114 housing units for 8,885 plumbers ≈ more than 334 sinks per plumber

While we all watch the AI tech bubble expand, it’s a good reminder that AI can’t solve all our problems.

From 1Q-19 through 1Q-23, Texas approved 988,114 private housing permits (including single and multi-units). Over the same period, the number of plumbers in Texas increased from 44,621 to 53,106, a total increase of 8,885. The net result is 111.2 housing units per additional plumber. Using a simple assumption of 3 sinks per unit works out to 333.6 new sinks per plumber. The actual ratio will be significantly higher since the permits include multi-units.

Now, AI could improve plumbing as a service by optimizing scheduling, diagnostics, and inventory management. These hypothetical productivity improvements are likely marginal at best. We have fundamental infrastructure and skilled worker challenges that need to be addressed even if the AI revolution succeeds, as the pundits would claim.

“In short, AI can’t turn a wrench.”

Credit to Scott Galloway’s The Prof G Show: “Josh Wolfe — Where to be Bearish and Bullish in 2024 | Prof G Conversations” for inspiring this note.

Footnote:

U.S. Census Bureau, New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits for Texas [TXBPPRIV], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TXBPPRIV, May 23, 2024.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Private, NAICS 238221 Residential plumbing and HAVC contractors, Texas. Quarterly data 2019 - 2023 , All establishment sizes